Fitzgerald Analytics

Each NBA Shot is a Decision: What's the Decision Model?

2010-12-28T23:30:09Z

These days, the sports world is full of people paying close attention to statistics....

General Managers use unconventional statistics to find hidden value in players....
Fans discuss stats when debating what a player is worth, how much playing time he should get and who he should be playing against.
Journalists use statistics to write stories - at best they'll use numbers to create a new narrative; at worst they'll use numbers to conveniently support an intuitive--but false--"story hook"

David Biderman, who writes "The Count," a Sports and Numbers blog for the WSJ, seems to have fallen into the latter category with his recent piece on what the Miam's Heat's passing means for their scoring chances. His convenient but suspicious "story hook" is that the more the Heat pass, the lower their shooting percentage gets. Here at Team Fitzgerald, we are deeply skeptical.

Biderman's contention is that because the Heat's shooting % is higher when they pass less, they should start acting more selfishly, pass less, and voila...they can boost their shooting percentage. If it were that simple....

But wait!...correlation does not equal causation. Do players get higher percentage shots when they pass less? Or do they pass less when they have a high percentage shot, for example on a fast break?

Let's take an important step back: each pass or shot is a decision. Professional players make it thousands of times, and coaches monitor how well they make that decision. We praise players who take higher percentage shots when they have them, and blame them when they give up a good shot with a pass they didn't need to make. On the other hand, if a player does not have a high percentage thought, we praise the decision to pass...nobody admires a "forced shot" with low probability of hitting the net.

If a player has a sweet fast break, or an open path to basket, the rational choice is to shoot (or dunk) bc they already have their high percentage shot. If the defense is able to get back, and the player can't easily take it himself, the rational choice is to slow it down and look for a set play that may involve more than 1. These are the decisions a player makes based on the set of facts in front of them in the moment. By not eliminating fast break plays, controlling for shot location, etc...Biderman is left with a data sample skewed enough to result in incorrect conclusions. Separating them would be a better way to see the impact of passing on a given basketball play.

So mathematically, let's run a quick scenario. During each game hundreds of "pass vs. shoot" decisions will be made. Rational team players shoot when the odds are in their favor (high percentage shot) and pass when they don't have a good shooting opportunity, seeking a better one. Meanwhile, the shot clock ticks...and as time passes, the calculus changes. Given the risk of running out of time on the shot clock, extra passes become less attractive and shots on the basket become more imperative, and players rationally are more willing to take lower-percentage, lower-quality shots. Shooting percentages can be expected to fall, because players are forced to shoot without having found an easy layup or fast-break dunk.

The article was based on data from only two games by one team. We wish we could find a similar but potentially more valuable data-set: shooting percentages by teammate, segmented by the number of seconds on the shot clock. This would allow us to test our hypotheses, which is that game patterns, and the related passage of time, cause patterns in shooting percentage, and that passing less is correlated with, but does not cause, higher shooting percentages.

We feel that Biderman's piece misses is what's at the heart of why statistics in sports are so captivating to so many of us. They allow us to reveal truths that were previously hidden. Biderman's piece doesn't make an attempt to dig deeper into why the Heat score less when they pass more. There is no hidden truth in this article, only a potential straw man.

What do you think?

Alex Roberts & Jaime Fitzgerald

Speaking of Turning Data to Dollars™: Previewing two Conference Presentations this Spring

2011-11-14T12:56:03Z

This week, I was delighted to receive invitations to speak this coming spring at both the AIIM International Conference & Expo and at Enterprise Data World. I’m excited about these opportunities to share real cases in the area of my passion: turning data into tangible results.

In late March, I’ll be presenting on “Knowledge Management for Analytic Professionals and Teams” at the AIIM International Conference & Expo @info360 in Washington, D.C. This annual event brings together thousands of technologists and business users to learn about and discuss the fast-changing landscape of information management -- and I’m excited to be a part of it!

Two weeks later, in the first week of April, I’ll be speaking for the second year in a row at Enterprise Data World in Chicago, Illinois, on the role data plays in customer experience. The title of my talk will be “Data-Driven Customer Satisfaction: The Link between Data Management, Balanced Scorecard, and Client Service Best Practices.” I’ll be sharing the stage with a long-time client, Zohar Swaine, Managing Director of Institutional Strategy & Product at TD AMERITRADE Institutional.

And just in case you’re interested, the slides from my presentation @ the 2010 Enterprise Data World conference, “Tales from a Master Data Management Transformation Roadtrip,” given with Art Garanich, Director of Information Technology at Bridgestone Firestone's Consumer Credit company, which provides private label credit cards for more than 5,000 retailers as part of the Bridgestone Firestone Corporation.

Besides sharing lessons learned while helping clients, these conferences are always a great opportunity to meet up with old friends and to learn from other thought leaders who are spearheading innovation in the data management space. I hope to see you there!

-Jaime Fitzgerald
@jaimefitzgerald

What Motivates Analytic Professionals?

2010-12-28T21:29:52Z

There are many reasons why we love or hate our jobs.

Professional analysts: what motivates YOU the most? If you could design the perfect job in analytics, what is the key?

For example, are you motivated by the nature of the work, the types of problems you solve, the financial incentives, career path upside, or something else?

Update/October 26 2010:

Hi fellow professionals -- thanks so much for all your comments on this thread. We hosted this discussion both HERE and on the Fitzgerald Analytics page on AnalyticBridge. Both the number, and the quality, of the posts exceeded my expectations. In about 1 week we are going to "close the window" on comments for this round, so we can plan and pursue next steps to research the topic further...and will be reaching out to all of you to invite your participation in that next round of discovery.

In the meantime if you have not commented YET, please do this week! I'm super grateful, and will do whatever I can to make it worth your while as we pursue this further.
Cheers,
Jaime Fitzgerald
Founder and President
Fitzgerald Analytics

Semantic Web Technologies and Open Data Innovation

2010-12-28T21:28:08Z

With my colleagues Kevin Cabral and Justin Goldbach, I attended and greatly enjoyed the latest event of the Lotico New York Semantic Web Meetup which was about open data innovation, especially with a focus on Data.gov and obviously, the role of Semantic Web Technologies in making open data more accessible, more useful, and more valuable to citizens and businesses.

The speakers were incredible:

Gale A. Brewer, New York City Council Member, who is clearly passionate and experienced in the benefits of applying technology and data innovation to benefit citizens, improve public services, and enable non-profits to help more people
Jim Hendler, Tetherless World Senior Constellation Professor, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) -- a pioneer in the field and a fascinating speaker.
Deborah L. McGuinness, Tetherless World Senior Constellation Professor RPI -- gave a fascinating talk. My favorite line: "the government would like nothing better than to see private companies use public data to make money, create jobs...create value with this."
Peter Fox, Professor and Tetherless World Research Constellation Chair RPI. Wow. A great presentation also, about "The eScience revolution: Semantic Web platform for massive scientific collaboration"

The implications of Semantic Web Technology, together with Open Data on the Web, including government data, creates incredible promise for innovation, transparency, and value creation. The wheels are spinning.

Helping in Haiti, Informed Giving, and Maximizing the Impact of Donations

2010-09-15T20:34:19Z

The recent tragedy in Haiti--and the outpouring of well-deserved sympathy and generosity it stimulated--has also highlighted a crucial trend in the non-profit world: the role of information in improving productivity, efficiency, and results.

This is good, as better information about how donations are used should help inspire MORE people to give what they can, confident that they know their hard-earned dollars will be deployed efficiently. But the tools need to be used to get these benefits...

According to the Chronicle of Philanthropy, private-sector donations to relief efforts in Haiti were more than $600 Million in the first 3 weeks since the earthquake...it looks like private giving could end up exceeding a billion dollars. And while this is a large and historic surge of giving, Haiti's challenges far exceed the resources available to fully address them.

When results matter--as they surely do at a time like this in Haiti--the tools we use to maximize the positive impact of our resources becomes incredibly important. Efficiency matters. My hope is that whenever possible, donors to charities not only give resources (e.g. dollars), but give them in ways that maximize the results achieved from these resources.

To give as efficiently as possible, we need good information on our options, and the implications of HOW we give. The good news is that today's donors have access to excellent information if they choose to use it....information that can multiply the impact of donor dollars by channeling resources to the most efficient charitable organizations. Several key resources here include:

Charity Navigator: the "guide to intelligent giving," this organization rates charities on their organizational efficiency and capacity, using a standard methodology. The CEO of the Charity Navigator, Ken Berger, spoke about the importance of "informed giving" on "The Takeaway" radio show.
Impact Your World: The Charity Navigator and CNN have partnered to create this site which features"vetted" organizations with known capabilities for a given natural disaster or humanitarian need
The American Institute of Philanthropy is considered especially aggressive in filtering out organizations that may attempt to "game" the ratings systems of other oversight organizations. It has been called the "pit bull of watchdogs" by the New York Times, and "more forensically minded" by Forbes. Their website is athttp://www.charitywatch.org
GuideStar is also well known for their informed giving toolkit, including their 9-Step Guide to Giving Wisely
The Center on Philanthropy at Indiana University has done a lot of research--and offers valuable information for donors--about the factors affecting "return on donations" across a wide range of situations. Their recent conference (in Oct. '09) pointed out that while "disaster giving" is essential and necessary, preparation for disasters BEFORE they occur often yields an even higher benefit per dollar invested.

At Fitzgerald Analytics, we have made a lasting commitment to serving the social sector as well as the private sector with our skills and our passions. We made this commitment because we genuinely believe that good decisions are even more important in the public and social sectors than they are in the private sector. With better decisions--enabled by information--our vision is to maximize the positive results achieved from existing resources, which are always finite.

Using the resources listed above, my team and I at Fitzgerald Analytics chose to make a contribution this month to Partners in Health. We were attracted to their clear business model, their efficiency, and their impressive rating @ Charity Navigator.

Final notes and next steps:

The topic is far more complex than any single blog post: it is important to acknowledge the inherent complexity and challenge of measuring the effectiveness of charitable programs. The social sector is incredibly diverse, and so are the drivers of results, the types of results being pursued, and the tools for measuring outcomes. We look forward to exploring a variety of more detailed topics in future posts, and also to learning more from our allies in the non-profit sector regarding the challenges they face, the nuances they encounter, and the emerging non-profit models they see getting the most traction towards the results donors so generously seek to enable.

Please share your insights: Please do get in touch so that we can "thought-partner" and collaborate further on this essential but complex topic.

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald

Clear Line of Sight into the Value of HR Executives

2010-09-15T20:19:29Z

Awareness of the value of HR Executives is growing. Clear "line of sight" between Human Capital contributions and the bottom line has resulted in more measurable and better understood definitions of HR impact. A recent WSJ article points out that:

"At least 65 current and former human-resources managers serve as outside directors on 101 boards...Ten years ago, the number would have been no more than a half dozen..."

An interesting trend, for sure -- HR pros have increased their role in corporate boards by an order of magnitude.

Based on our experience working with executives in the Human Capital function, my team and I believe that the respect HR Pros are receiving is driven by two key factors:

Measurement: it's become easier (and more common) to measure the contribution of HR Pros to bottom line results. So the value that's always been there is now being measured more consistently.
Results-Orientation of Human Capital Pros: the HR function has evolved, increasingly, towards a "Human Capital" paradigm, which is inherently results oriented, ROI-driven, and does a better job of "connecting the dots" between HR functions and business outcomes. As a result, the best Human Capital professions in their field have become high impact, high value, and highly coveted C-level executives

It's great see see the huge intangible value added by Human Capital professionals becoming more visible!

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald, Alex Roberts

The Impact of Money in Sports: Correlation or Causality?

2010-09-15T20:15:07Z

According to the Wall Street Journal's sports metrics column, The Count, the NHL shows the strongest link between team payroll and winning percentage of all professional sports. It's a provocative and counter-intuitive conclusion, as many sports fans assume that baseball is most impacted by financial disparities between big-city teams and other, smaller market competitors.

The column compares the correlation between payroll and winning percentage in the 4 major sports:

NHL shows the highest correlation between payrool and winning: .49
MLB places a close second at .43,
The NBA and NFL lag behind at .24 and .15, respectively.

I'm intrigued, but also skeptical, and most of all curious to see more comprehensive analysis of the dynamics at play here. Glad to see the info, but several "open questions" remain:

Causality: since correlation does not prove causality, it may be premature to conclude (as the column does) that in the NHL "More Dollars Equal More Wins." What if causality runs in the other direction, with winning teams earning more revenue, which they in-turn spend retaining their best players?
What's The Mechanism?: how does extra money generate additional wins? If the NHL is really the league where money buys success most consistently, how is that investment achieved? One could think of this as the "Return on Investment" on professional sports payrolls....
Role of Sabermetrics? -- In most businesses, ROI is higher when investments are better screened and selected. Facts and analysis are used to make better decisions which achieve superior returns. This is where the NHL and MLB are especially different: player-valuation metrics are advanced and heavily used in Baseball, while they are less well developed in the NHL. I'm curious to investigate further how the "metrics environment" affects ability of team owners to "buy wins" in one sport versus another....
Effects of League Financial Structure?: the financial dynamics, salary cap rules, and revenue-sharing arrangements vary significantly amongst the professional sports leagues. What impact might those differences have on the "causal impact" of money in each league?

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald, Alex Roberts

Themes from the 2009 MDM Summit in NYC

2010-09-15T20:11:40Z

For the third year in a row, I attended the MDM Summit in NYC with teammates from Fitzgerald Analytics and with clients whose interests dovetail with the subject matter at hand. As usual, the event was thought-provoking and at times, even inspiring.

For those of us who are passionate about the challenges, but also the opportunities in the emergent field of data management, the event reminds us that "the wind is at our back." A mixture of technology trends and business imperatives means Data Management will continue to grow as a field, and the quality of solutions will continue to mature.

This year I was struck by several "highlight themes":

Emphasis on doing "first things first," which means for example:

...doing enough data profiling before data integration...

and

...establishing viable data governance before rolling out major solutions or change programs...

This realism was positive, and a sign that more "real cases" are leading to more consensus around "preconditions to success" in the MDM realm.
Linking strong Data Management with revenue upside.

John Fleming, Head of Strategy & Governance for Client Data at MERRILL LYNCH, was especially impressive in articulating the connection between better integrated and managed data, and better customer retention, more innovative revenue capture, etc.

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald

Data Management Conference Predictions

2010-09-15T20:09:53Z

Together with teammates and clients, I'm about to head uptown for the long-awaited MDM New York Conference. Having attended annually since 2007, I've found the event always thought-provoking regarding this critical topic which is becoming a fast-growing but still emergent discipline/function.

Some of the "highlight topics" we expect to be especially resonant:

MDM: NOUN OR VERB -- explores the key question "is Master Data Management something you buy or is it a long term commitment?"
MDM in the Health Care Industry -- obviously a hugely important topic with regard to digital medical records
Data Governance -- and "oldie but goodie" topic, a perennial, because it's such a "key precondition" to success in data management, so essential to getting ROI on MDM investments

More to come...

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald

Analytics Career Paths: Still a Promising Road...

2010-09-10T21:50:50Z

While many predictions about the impact of the internet on our lives have required "heavy edits" or revisions, this article about careers in analytics seems like it could have been written yesterday. The actual dateline? July 4th 2001. (The article focused especially on web analytics, but the thesis applies more broadly in both online, offline, and hybrid contexts.)

As I mentioned in a comment to the author, at Fitzgerald Analytics we feel as certain in 2007 as she was in 2001 regarding the growing demand for Analytic experience.

For job seekers who share our interest, and confidence, in the continued growth of the analytics career path, take a look at the Analytics Career Path at Fitzgerald Analytics... If I can be of further assistance on this topic, don't hesitate to contact me.

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald

Data Governance (Between Organizations)

2010-09-10T21:51:14Z

The rules by which data from one source in integrated into another organization require thought, planning, and governance that goes well beyond what most organizations currently are capable of.

In this interesting post, author and fellow practitioner David Loshin comments further on this issue.

read more | digg story

What If You Hired Only the Best People and Paid Them Like Superstars?

2010-09-07T13:46:16Z

Moneyball tactics (generally speaking, analytics & fact-based decisions in the context of professional sports mgt) help teams improve their Return on Investment (ROI). But the size of the investment itself (including salaries, management....even the analysis itself!) still matters in the equation.

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald

Top 10 Books on Analytics -- A Data to Dollars™ Starter Library

2011-11-14T12:54:11Z

What books belong on our shelves as we navigate the pathway towards success via analytics? What texts offer practical reference as we design analytic processes to translate Data to Dollars™?

At Fitzgerald Analytics, where our specialty is to help clients make their high-stakes (i.e. strategic) decisions more fact-based, more successful, and more profitable, we are often asked this question. And while books alone are unlikely to inject brand new analytic capabilities into complex, established corporations, I do find that clients who read certain books derive remarkable value from the material.

With this in mind, we have finally decided to "go public" with our Top 10 Books on Analytics -- A "Data to Dollars™" Starter Library

Of course, this is a generalized list based on the needs of my past and present clients (whom in the past decade have ranged from Banks in the US, Canada, and Singapore to major firms in Health Care, Pharmaceuticals, Publishing/Media, Manufacturing, Retail Services, and Non-Profit sectors). If you'd like a customized list based on your particular interests, don't hesitate to ask...

We hope you like it. For other favorite books, feel free to visit our new Profile including favorite books page on Amazon.

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald

Reflections on the Master Data Management Conference

2010-09-20T14:43:15Z

As a firm whose "strike zone" involves the translation of raw data into high-impact decisions, the Fitzgerald Analytics Team has long been passionate about the "analytic process." And if you define it broadly enough, the so-called "Analytics Value Chain" does indeed stretch...

From the origins of raw data...
...to it's management within established standards, governance, and processes...
...to it's inclusion in core data assets...
...which are used as inputs to analytic platforms...
...upon which analytic tools are built and deployed...
...which are used within business processes...
...to systematically make better, more profitable, decisions.

And while step #7 is "where the money is," the chain of causality stretches all the way back to step #1.

With this perspective in mind, our team took time out from client work to attend the CDI-MDM Summit last week, here in New York City. This is the premier conference focused exlusively on Master Data Management and Customer Data Integration, and was worth every penny, minute, and calorie we spent attending.

We will be posting a more extensive summary of takeaways, but at a high level, the event did a great job of showcasing the fact that good data management remains, as it has been for several decade now, the "great precondition." What I mean by that is that since modern business processes are built on information, the management of corporate data as a precious asset is required to enable C-level strategic objectives including:

Compliance and Risk Management
Agility and responsiveness to change (for example, to pursue new markets, segments, or partnerships)
Merger integration
Marketing ROI
Sales Force Effectiveness

...and many other objectives.

For more on analytics and data management, check out our Fitzgerald Analytics book recommendations at Amazon.

Posted By:
Jaime Fitzgerald

Reflections on the Master Data Management Conference

2010-12-29T18:08:33Z

From the origins of raw data...
...to it's management within established standards, governance, and processes...
...to it's inclusion in core data assets...
...which are used as inputs to analytic platforms...
...upon which analytic tools are built and deployed...
...which are used within business processes...
...to systematically make better, more profitable, decisions :-)

And while step #7 is "where the money is," the chain of causality stretches all the way back to step #1.

With this perspective in mind, our team took time out from client work to attend the CDI-MDM Summit last week, here in New York City. This is the premier conference focused exlusively on Master Data Management and Customer Data Integration, and was worth every penny, minute, and calorie we spent attending.

We will be posting a more extensive summary of takeaways, but at a high level, the event did a great job of showcasing the fact that good data management remains, as it has been for several decade now, the "great precondition." What I mean by that is that since modern business processes are build on information, the management of corporate data as a precious asset is required to enable C-level strategic objectives including:

Compliance and Risk Management
Agility and responsiveness to change (for example, to pursue new markets, segments, or partnerships)
Merger integration
Marketing ROI
Sales Force Effectiveness

...and many other objectives.

For more on analytics and data management, check out our Fitzgerald Analytics book recommendations at Amazon.

Jaime Fitzgerald
President
Fitzgerald Analytics, Inc.
Visit us at http://www.fitzgeraldanalytics.com